2019 Forecast Addendum

Here's a couple of astro charts to zoom in a little on some of the aspects that we'll see this year.

First is January the 14th. I already mentioned this date as a likely low for a couple of reasons and the chart only adds to that argument. On that day the moon will square Saturn, Pluto and the Sun as well as conjuncting Uranus to make a very impressive T square. This is not the chart for a mid January high.

Next is the 21st of January. The T square is still there since the Node, Saturn, Uranus and Pluto are all slow moving 'planets', however what's interesting here is that with the full moon occurring so close to the node there is bound to be a lunar eclipse that can quite possibly act as an intensifier for all of the other aspects. I'm thinking out aloud a bit with this one because I don't know enough about eclipses as yet however I do know that they often coincide with steep declines.

New Moon on the 6th of March. This is a setup for, but not a guarantee of, a minor panic.

Chart for April the 6th. I mentioned the 5th of April in my forecast due to the Node Pluto opposition. Looking at the entire chart however shows a bunch of squares going on.

Chart for April the 23rd. Sun conjunct Uranus with the moon at 135... Looks like a down day.

Chart for the 3rd of May. I mentioned the 1st of May as a serious negative due to the Node Saturn opposition. Look at everything else adding to it though, a whole bunch of T squares going on.

Chart for the 2nd of July. Again I have already mentioned the 4th of July as a major negative aspect, but the 2nd will be a solar eclipse and a possible intensifier.

Chart for the 1st of August. This is another setup for a possible panic.

Chart for the 28th of October. Again another setup for a panic.

Chart for the 26th of December. This is another solar eclipse chart, however this one is positive and suggests a rally into the end of the year, at least for a day or two!

2019 Forecast

Ok I'll try to keep this brief.

Firstly the big picture and important cycles, then the conclusions.

1. Fundamentals - Too High.
Putting cycles aside for a moment... Are markets relatively high, low, or somewhere in between? This is the easiest question of all to answer! Share market valuations have reached nose bleed levels and are still overvalued, even with the 20% declines that have been witnessed thus far.

2. Lunar Node Cycle - Down
The Lunar Node transited into Cancer on the 7th of November last year, marking the end of the 'high' part of the cycle and a gradual transition back to 'low' prices for the next 9 years. This cycle will bring a lift when the Node transits through Gemini however the general trend will be down for all of 2019 and there will also be a bunch of transits that will add to the negative pressures later in the year.

3. Saturn Uranus Cycle - Down
2018 saw the end of a Saturn-Uranus trine, a very powerful positive aspect. To find similar examples simply count back in 45 year increments... 1973, 1928, etc. This aspect is probably still in some sort of orb but it is waning and has been since September the 10th. The next major aspect for this planetary pair is a square (hugely negative of course) that will occur in early 2021. (Again you can compare this with 1974, 1931, etc.)

4. Sunspot Cycle - Down
This cycle peaked quite a while ago and will not bottom until 2020 or 2021.

5. Jupiter Uranus Cycle - Mostly neutral with a high in December
This cycle will have three transits through 135 degrees in 2019. These transits have good probabilities for marking a short term turn in the markets but should not be particularly negative. There is also however a trine on the 16th of December that should offer 60 or 70% odds for marking a high (+/- 7 days).

6. Jupiter Saturn Cycle - Neutral
There will be three transits of 30 degrees this year. This is slightly positive but not much in the overall scheme of things.


So... Conclusions:

1. The overall forecast is for a bear market in 2019 that will continue the decline over the last 3 to 6 months of 2018 (depending on which index you want to look at).
2. January will see a couple of negative aspects on the 10th (Jup/Ura), 14th (Jup/Nept) and 30th (Sat/natal Sat) so in the short term I'm expecting a minor high on the 4th of January followed by a decline until the 14th. If this proves to be correct then any rally should be sold into as a mid Jan low is VERY unlikely to end the decline.
3. February should be generally down but with no major cycle aspects to time intermediate term lows or highs.
4. March will see Mercury drop into it's inferior conjunction on the 15th, possibly timing a short term low however the Lunar Node's negative transits will start hitting in early April so the effects will likely be seen in March as well.
5. In April Mercury will be on the upswing however Pluto and Saturn are nearly conjunct at the moment and will make multiple (negative) oppositions to the Node in April, May, July and September so... even though there is an aspect on the 5th of April I wouldn't want to count on there being much of an upswing after that date.
6. The first Node Saturn opposition will be on the 1st of May. This can potentially time some sort of a low however on this occasion the aspect is going to linger with two more touches yet to come in the future so more information would be needed before betting on a rally.
7. June has a couple of planetary aspects that can time a low, especially on the 7th and 17th. However there is always a stronger negative aspect in the near future so the best trades will still be on the short side.
8. The second Node Saturn opposition will transit on the 4th of July. The downswing of the Mercury cycle will also start to be felt and will bottom on the 21st. 
9. August is a quiet month for planetary transits. Mercury will be on the upswing but August falls in the more bearish half of the year and there will also be several negative transits to the United States natal chart on the 3rd, 15th and 20th.
10. September = more negatives. Are you getting used to this yet dear reader? Saturn square natal Saturn on the 17th, Jupiter square Neptune on the 22nd and Node opposition Saturn on the 28th (very bad). This is so negative that it actually has a chance to bring in the low for the year.
11. October = more negatives, but not as negative as September. There is a Jupiter Uranus turn date on the 14th and a Saturn square natal Saturn on the 21st. 
12. November has some negative cycles, but the trend may turn up for a couple of months. The New Moon at the end of October will set up the conditions for a possible panic and the 11th of November will be the last Mercury low cycle for the year. On this basis the 11th or 12th of November is probably the last chance for a low date in 2019 and should see some sort of a rally as the negative pressures start to wane.
13. The 16th of December will be a Jupiter Uranus trine. This is nearly always a high so with everything else considered I'm expecting a rally up into this date, give or take 7 days. From there it will be time to reassess but 2019 will not end the bear market in my opinion.

2018 Forecast Review

On the 14th of May this year I posted my forecast for the rest of the year and a brief overview of 2019.

Here is what I said in that forecast:

Here is how it looks on the SPX.

Not too bad overall. The move up into mid June proved to be correct. Then a low in late June was on the early end of the forecast range. The mid August to early Sept high forecast proved to be a little bit premature, however the suggestion to load up on shorts on the 2nd of October was almost perfect. The other suggested date for shorts was the 29th of October and while it was not a good day for selling it did prove to time a very tradeable turn in the market. The call for a move down into early December proved to be correct but was actually not bearish enough.

Here is the same forecast applied to the DAX.

As you can see the SPX has been a more bullish index in relative terms most of the time, but not all of the time. The DAX moved sideways over to a mid June slightly lower high on the 15th of June and has been in an overall downtrend since then. The early June low is also present on the DAX and it made a high in mid August, in the middle of the forecast time window. The 2nd of October also proved to be a very good date for establishing short positions and the market then moved with a clear trend into early December and beyond.

Lastly it is worth also looking at the XAO.

From mid May when the forecast was made the All Ords was also higher into mid June, making a short term high on the 21st. The forecast low from late June to late July was a bit of a fizzer but the market did move higher and made a bull market high in the middle of the August/September time window that was forecast. From there the market has moved down consistently although the suggestion to place shorts on the 2nd of October was off by a day or two if compared to the other indicies.

Overall I think it's a solid 7 or 8 out of 10 for the forecast. (The best thing however has been that the expectation for a major high around August or September has kept me on the right side of the market for most of the subsequent decline.)

Best wishes for 2019!

SPX Review

I'm more than a little bit overdue for a post on the current status of the SP500. In my next post I will review my 2018 astro forecast and do a new forecast for 2019 however for now I will limit the analysis price structure, breadth and sentiment.

Price Structure:

There are a couple of things to consider here. The first chart below is a couple of days old now but it shows clear indications of both a momentum reversal as well as an acceleration down.

The next chart shows the point value of all of the major retracements in the market during the past 9 years. As you can see the current drop has exceeded every other retracement by a significant margin and again indicates that the trend has reversed. I have also highlighted the huge RSI and MACD momentum divergence at the recent high.

The two charts above paint a very clear and bearish picture that is also consistent with the astro forecast for an end to the bull market and a new 9.3 year bear market. However markets don't move in a straight line so for the shorter term perspective (which is also important) it's worth paying close attention to breadth and sentiment indicators for any warnings or useful information.


Market Breadth:

First up is a plain vanilla chart of the SPX with the NYMO, NYSI and BPNYA indicators. There are no divergences in play but the indicators may be at the low end of their range so more perspective is needed.

Next is the same chart but extended out to show a 5 year period. As you can see there is some correlation between the current readings of these indicators various market lows over the past 5 years, especially in January/February of 2016. Indicators don't necessarily work the same in bear markets as they do in bull markets and it is therefore also important to check the performance of these indicators in a bear as well.

First is the NYMO in 2008. I've marked two occasions where the NYMO exceeded the current reading and yet the market continued to fall. If you look closely at the data there are quite a few readings that are as low or at least comparable to the current reading (-100). Sometimes those readings marked the end of a decline (even if only temporarily) and sometimes they didn't. As a result there doesn't seem to be a threshold that can be used to both mark extremes and provide a useful number of signals.

Next is the NYSI in 2008. This indicator interests me mostly for the divergence signals but as you can see below the 2008 bear market produced very little in the way of useful divergence signals until almost the end of the bear market.

Next is the BPNYA in 2008. The current reading is 23% so I've marked horizontal lines at 20% and 30%. As you can see readings at this level in 2008 were not particularly uncommon and did include some lows if you look at a range, however a reading below 30 was often far too early to assist with bottom picking.

Next I would like to look at the NYAD ema20, because it shows things that other indicators just can't show. First is the current chart with the SPX. Again I like this indicator mostly for divergence signals but extremes can also be useful. At the moment the reading is -810

A check on this indicator in a bear market is also necessary. As you can see below it takes quite a lot for the indicator to get down to this level. I've marked three occasions where it was this low but where it was simply too early as a timing signal.

The last breadth chart to look at is the SPX new highs/new lows. Not surprisingly it is somewhat similar to the BPNYA chart and suggests that the current situation is similar to early 2016. More perspective is needed but unfortunately I don't have easy access to that data and given that there's only so many ways that you can crunch the same numbers I don't think that it would add any new information to the analysis here.

Sentiment:

The first chart is the RYDEX asset allocations. The trend does appear to have changed, downwards, but the indicator is in the middle of it's range and is not even close to indicating a low.

Next is the raw AAII sentiment data. Not enough bulls and an oversupply of bears, if this is a bull market you should buy now.

The next chart shows AAII as a ratio and shows it as perhaps at the low end of it's range.

Looking at the AAII data (as a ratio) in 2008 is not so clear however. As with the breadth extremes in the charts above you will find that an extreme reading can very easily be close to a low in time but not in price.

Conclusion:

1. The price structure clearly indicates that the bull market has ended AND that we can't expect some lazy 12 months of distribution before the bear market starts trending down in earnest. The bear market has started and it will pay to set up short positions sooner rather than later. This actually makes some sense given that the 2018 high has the signs of a bubble market top in terms of trajectory and valuations. It should not be unexpected then to assume that the bear market which follows will bring a fast, savage and immediate drop rather than a slow grind down to lower prices.

2. The market breadth indicators are showing levels that indicate the market is close to a low in terms of time, but not necessarily in terms of price.

3. The market sentiment indicators are telling the same story as the breadth indicators.

4. The current situation is extreme and yet anything is possible (especially given the astro forecast for next week). The most bullish scenerio is that the market rallies around 200 points before collapsing and the most bearish scenario is that the SPX will crash 500 to 1000 points next week. Anything in between is of course also possible. One thing that is almost certain however is that some huge downside is coming and the question is how to trade the markets based on that assumption.

84 Year Cycle

Much of the following information was learned directly from Luther Jensen's book "Astro-Cycles & Speculative Markets". This book was first published in 1935 however it is still in print and available from the Lambert-Gann publishing company (linked below). It is of course a highly recommended text for anyone with an interest in studying financial astrology.

https://www.wdgann.com/collections/other-related-books/products/astro-cycles-and-speculative-markets-astro-economic-interpretation

In short, the 84 year cycle is the cycle of Uranus's orbit around the sun and I would expect that there are many phenomena or events that can be correlated with this cycle. Jensen however sets out a limited but clear argument showing that the presence of Uranus in Gemini (and more specifically at 8 to 9 degrees of Gemini) has correlated extremely accurately with major events and epochal changes in the history of the United States.

In chronological order these major events and changes have been:

1. 1523 Uranus crossed the 8th and 9th degrees of Gemini. It was around this time that the first Spanish settlements of the new world took place in Florida at a site near Jamestown. It is well understood that Columbus 'discovered' America in 1492, however the Spanish did nothing with this new knowledge at the time. It was not until the 1520's that serious attempts to colonise the new territories took place.

2. In 1607 (i.e. 1523 + 84) the first English settlement was made at Jamestown with Uranus again at 8 to 9 degrees of Gemini. What could go wrong?!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamestown,_Virginia

3. In 1691 both England and American colonies were in the midst of civil war. In the process of this conflict Jamestown is burned and subsequently ceases to be the capital of Virginia.

4. In 1775 and 1776 Uranus was again at 8 to 9 degrees of Gemini. This coincides exactly with the Declaration of Independence which was the starting point of the American revolutionary war.

5. In 1860 and 1861 Uranus was again at 8 to 9 degrees of Gemini, timing with great accuracy the beginning the of American civil war.

At the time when Jensen published his book the next transit of Uranus was still 7 years into the future so he didn't know what the exact effects would be. He did however know what the planetary positions would be and he therefore made the following comment or prediction:

From 1859-1860 to 1943-1944, when Uranus will again traverse the 8th and 9th degrees of Gemini, is 84 years. Intensifying circumstances at that time will be Saturn in Gemini between May 9th, 1942 and June 20th, 1944, following a conjunction of Saturn and Uranus in 29 degrees of Taurus on May 3rd, 1942, and a conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn in Taurus (an earth sign) in the early part of February 1941. It is unqualifiedly the most momentous period so far encountered in American history.

Can anyone not say that the emergence of the United States as the world's major superpower does not derive directly from it's involvement in the Second World War at that time?

The next question however is of course: When will the next transit of Uranus at 8 to 9 degrees of Gemini be?

The answer is from July 2027 to May 2028, a bit less than 9 years from now. Also contributing to the astrological pressures at that time will be:

• Saturn Uranus 45 degrees 
• Jupiter Uranus 90 degrees
• Jupiter Saturn 135 degrees
• Jupiter Neptune 135 degrees
• New Moon square to Uranus on 31st of August 2027
• Lunar Node 18.6 year cycle low

Given the above the 3rd quarter of 2027 is set to be a particularly stressful time. I do hope however that America can get through this without doing anything particularly regrettable.

Breadth and Pivots

Copied below are the pivots that I posted on my Twitter account some time ago. As you can see I was expecting a move down to the 27th of July however that clearly hasn't happened.

The pivot forecasts need to be read with the understanding that an inversion will occur roughly 15% of time so it's no great surprise if the cycle has now flipped the 27th over to a High. On this basis the SP500 should now be heading down to a low around the 10th of August.

The current state of the market breadth on the NYSE also supports the view that the market is now trending down with most or all breadth indicators printing clear divergences. First up is the NYMO and NYSI.

The Russell 2000 has also printed a series of slightly lower highs over the last couple of weeks.

The more unusual indication this time around is that the cumulative NYAD has also been showing some relatively weakness.

As mentioned previously Saturn and Uranus are making a very slow approach to a near exact trine at the moment. For that reason I don't expect anything to completely fall apart but I am wondering if we are in the midst of a sideways chop that will eventually print a slightly higher high on the SP500 in September.

The Australian market is looking somewhat similar. The charts below show the relative weakness that is showing in the XSO after an extended period of significant relative strength.

So.... I expect a pullback sooner rather than later, then either a secondary high or a higher high and a major down move to get started before the end of the year.

Good luck.

Scorpio Moon

Back in the 1920's W.D. Gann issued a forecast stating that 'there could be panicky conditions in the Fall' of 1929.

I have long been puzzled by this forecast however when I've looked at the astrological charts everything has appeared to be unremarkable.

Importantly:

• Jupiter is midway through it's transit of Gemini, which is generally positive for markets.
• Saturn and Uranus (especially Uranus) are not making any significant hard aspects to other planets.

What I have done now though is to look at the new moons and that has proven to be a whole different story!

The chart below shows the sky for the New Moon on the 3rd of October. This was one month after the September 3rd high (which was also a new moon) but before the sharp portion of the 1929 crash. 

Uranus is always the driver for sudden changes so with that in mind the reason for Gann's forecast is now as plain as day!!

What about 1987 then? I have posted previously about the effect of the planetary declinations on the crash however the declinations generally fall in the second half of every year whereas the 1987 crash was a rare event so presumably something else is at play. 

The chart below is for the New Moon on the 23rd of September 1987. As with the 1929 moon this is one month after the market top. Note that the New Moon is again making a hard aspect with Uranus. In this case the aspect is not exact however the New Moon also brought a Solar Eclipse which I think must be a factor.

For the sake of comparison it is also worth looking at the chart below which was the New Moon at the August high in 1987. Pretty cheery eh.

The link below has some information regarding the eclipse referred to above.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_eclipse_of_September_23,_1987

90 Year Cycle

The 90 Year Cycle (as I understand it at least) is actually two 45 year Saturn - Uranus synodic cycles and brings both planets back to nearly the exact same place in the zodiac (progressed by less than 30 degrees of longitude).

It might be argued that the cycle should be anchored at a conjunction, however given the similar effects of squares and oppositions it is worthwhile to use any of the negative aspects at 11.25 year intervals as a starting point.

Given the above consider the following:

Firstly the 1837 panic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1837

"... Banks collapsed, businesses failed, prices declined and thousands of workers lost their jobs. Unemployment may have been as high as 25% in some locales. The years 1837 to 1844 were, generally speaking, years of deflation in wages and prices."

This is of course basically the same story as the 1930's depression which (using the DJIA as a proxy) occurred 90 years later from 1929 to mid 1932.

Adding another 90 years brings us to the present time and implies a major high around 2017 to 2019. The forthcoming Saturn-Uranus square then suggests that the bear market low will occur around 2020 to 2022 however another important factor is that the lunar node cycle is about to turn down for the next 9.3 years and so an even lower low may yet occur around 2027.

Forecast

Here's a bit of a refinement to the forecast that I posted on the 29th of April.

From where we are now on the 14th of May I expect to see the following and will use breadth to confirm as it plays out or not, as the case may be:

1. Generally higher into mid June. Best pick for a high is the 15th of June.
2. Lower into late June to late July. There is no clear concentration of cycles on one date but I will be very wary of any long signals before the 20th of July (Node - Mars opposition).
3. Higher into mid August to early September. Again there is no major cycle cluster but I expect that the Saturn - Uranus near trine on the 10th of September will prevent any collapse before then and the market may even continue higher after then with Mercury on the upswing.
4. Down into early December, looking for a low around the 6th (Node - Pluto opposition).
5. There are a couple of positive aspects in late December that may support a year end of rally, but by the time December arrives ALL of the MAJOR cycles will have passed their peak so the risk of downside suprises will be huge.

If markets tank into the end of the year then the best dates for setting up shorts may well prove to be:

1. 2nd of October; and
2. 29th of October.

In 2019 there is very little in terms of positive cycles until we get to late November or mid December. Jupiter and Uranus will make a trine on the 16th of December which is nearly always a high of some degree.

The negative cycles for the first three quarters of the year however suggest nothing less than a severe bear move with the peak negative cycles falling from the 17th of September to the 21st of October. The peak negative cycles will also be coinciding coincide with the annual downdraft of declinations so with that in mind the best date for loading up shorts will likely be:

1. 30th of July;
2. 26th of August; (Happy Anniversary!!)
3. 23rd of September.

1987

First up here is a (slightly butchered) chart of the SP500 that I found on the internet. The bright red marks are my additions.

Next I'm going to show a bit of planetary phenomena from that time period.

First up is Saturn and Uranus on the same chart. What's notable to me is that both planets made lows in March and April, then moved up to highs in late July and early September before turning South again... correlating nicely with final run up in the SP500 from April/May to late August.

Next is Mars and Jupiter. Mars made it's high in May and then trended down for the rest of the year. Jupiter was in an overall uptrend but made a short term reversal that timed almost exactly with the August high and the secondary low in early December.

Mercury and Venus next. Mercury was the last to top and the first to bottom on the 1st of August and 16th of October respectively.

The 16th of October was a Friday and the "Black Monday" crash came one trading day later on Monday the 19th... Almost perfect!

Lastly the Moon. The moon orbits too fast to have a consistent trend for the entire course of a bear market but it did trend down during the fastest part of the crash from it's maximum North on the 13th of October. Many of it's max/min and zero points during that year also timed other major points on the price chart including the August high and October low (with a 2 day allowance).

So... During the 1987 crash every single planet from the Moon all the way out to Uranus trended down.

Does anyone have a coincidence theory for that?

7 Year Pivots, Including Saros Cycle (7 x 8 = 56)

Using past data in 7 year increments: 1990, 1997, 2004, 2011:

Common pivots from the above are:

• Late January (2/4)
• Late February/Early March (4/4)
• Mid to Late April (4/4)
• Mid June (3/4)
• Mid July to early August (4/4)
• Late August (4/4)
• Early October (4/4)
• Mid to Late October (4/4)
• Early December (3/4)

The late January and late February pivots are arguably hits for 2018 and if markets turn down from here then so the late April hit will be also.

The next time period to watch will be mid to late June.

Looking also at the Saros cycle we have the following charts for 1962 and 1906

Note that both 1906 and 1962 both have solid declines down into the late June/early July period.

The charts below have a couple of potential targets for the SP500. I'm not so sure that they'll be reached but in any case it's amazing to see that if the 2002 bear market range is repeated then we'll only have a 33 to 38% retracement!