31 July 2018

Breadth and Pivots

Copied below are the pivots that I posted on my Twitter account some time ago. As you can see I was expecting a move down to the 27th of July however that clearly hasn't happened.

The pivot forecasts need to be read with the understanding that an inversion will occur roughly 15% of time so it's no great surprise if the cycle has now flipped the 27th over to a High. On this basis the SP500 should now be heading down to a low around the 10th of August.



The current state of the market breadth on the NYSE also supports the view that the market is now trending down with most or all breadth indicators printing clear divergences. First up is the NYMO and NYSI.



The Russell 2000 has also printed a series of slightly lower highs over the last couple of weeks.



The more unusual indication this time around is that the cumulative NYAD has also been showing some relatively weakness.




As mentioned previously Saturn and Uranus are making a very slow approach to a near exact trine at the moment. For that reason I don't expect anything to completely fall apart but I am wondering if we are in the midst of a sideways chop that will eventually print a slightly higher high on the SP500 in September.

The Australian market is looking somewhat similar. The charts below show the relative weakness that is showing in the XSO after an extended period of significant relative strength.




So.... I expect a pullback sooner rather than later, then either a secondary high or a higher high and a major down move to get started before the end of the year.

Good luck.

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