Review - Astro

It's clear now that the forecast I made at the end of 2018 is a failure. The price chart runs from the bottom left to the top right of the price chart... so much for my bearish predictions.

We are however heading into the bearish half of the year. Solar declination is falling and very soon from now all of the planets will join it. On top of these the forthcoming New Moons on the 1st of August and 28th of October have every chance of triggering very memorable panics.

Time will tell but I would certainly like to see a good washout.

From mid November to mid December should be very bullish, and again the new moon on the 26th of December may well put a rocket under the market until well into January next year.

Good hunting...

Review - Sentiment

Sentiment measures at the moment are a bit equivocal. This is usually the case but at least the more reliable measures support the thesis of a market high here.

Raw AAII data isn't saying anything useful, but it's only rarely useful when the best trading opportunities come along.

Same story for the ratio of the AAII data... nothing of note here.

NAAIM data is certainly more useful and is at the high end of the range... consistent with a high.

The put/call data is also looking useful and has turned up from a level that can mark SPX tops.

So... it's not exactly conclusive (as usual) but all else being equal I'd rather be short than long.

Review - Breadth

I'm clearly well overdue for a general market review and will do this in a trinity of parts... breadth, sentiment and astrology.

Firstly the breadth charts which for the most part are all saying much the same thing for both the short term and intermediate term outlook:

Negative breadth divergence abounds and it's fair to expect that we are either at or near a tradeable high....

The charts speak for themselves (to anyone who understands breadth and Dow theory) so I'll keep the commentary to a minimum.

I have left the least bearish chart 'til last. The cumulative NYAD line has a small divergence at the high but I would expect more than this for a major high. Nevertheless I have seen the market turn several times with a small divergence such as this.

Bottom line.... All the breadth divergence that a short position could ask for. The only question is how low will it go and how long will it stay down.

2019 Forecast Addendum

Here's a couple of astro charts to zoom in a little on some of the aspects that we'll see this year.

First is January the 14th. I already mentioned this date as a likely low for a couple of reasons and the chart only adds to that argument. On that day the moon will square Saturn, Pluto and the Sun as well as conjuncting Uranus to make a very impressive T square. This is not the chart for a mid January high.

Next is the 21st of January. The T square is still there since the Node, Saturn, Uranus and Pluto are all slow moving 'planets', however what's interesting here is that with the full moon occurring so close to the node there is bound to be a lunar eclipse that can quite possibly act as an intensifier for all of the other aspects. I'm thinking out aloud a bit with this one because I don't know enough about eclipses as yet however I do know that they often coincide with steep declines.

New Moon on the 6th of March. This is a setup for, but not a guarantee of, a minor panic.

Chart for April the 6th. I mentioned the 5th of April in my forecast due to the Node Pluto opposition. Looking at the entire chart however shows a bunch of squares going on.

Chart for April the 23rd. Sun conjunct Uranus with the moon at 135... Looks like a down day.

Chart for the 3rd of May. I mentioned the 1st of May as a serious negative due to the Node Saturn opposition. Look at everything else adding to it though, a whole bunch of T squares going on.

Chart for the 2nd of July. Again I have already mentioned the 4th of July as a major negative aspect, but the 2nd will be a solar eclipse and a possible intensifier.

Chart for the 1st of August. This is another setup for a possible panic.

Chart for the 28th of October. Again another setup for a panic.

Chart for the 26th of December. This is another solar eclipse chart, however this one is positive and suggests a rally into the end of the year, at least for a day or two!

2019 Forecast

Ok I'll try to keep this brief.

Firstly the big picture and important cycles, then the conclusions.

1. Fundamentals - Too High.
Putting cycles aside for a moment... Are markets relatively high, low, or somewhere in between? This is the easiest question of all to answer! Share market valuations have reached nose bleed levels and are still overvalued, even with the 20% declines that have been witnessed thus far.

2. Lunar Node Cycle - Down
The Lunar Node transited into Cancer on the 7th of November last year, marking the end of the 'high' part of the cycle and a gradual transition back to 'low' prices for the next 9 years. This cycle will bring a lift when the Node transits through Gemini however the general trend will be down for all of 2019 and there will also be a bunch of transits that will add to the negative pressures later in the year.

3. Saturn Uranus Cycle - Down
2018 saw the end of a Saturn-Uranus trine, a very powerful positive aspect. To find similar examples simply count back in 45 year increments... 1973, 1928, etc. This aspect is probably still in some sort of orb but it is waning and has been since September the 10th. The next major aspect for this planetary pair is a square (hugely negative of course) that will occur in early 2021. (Again you can compare this with 1974, 1931, etc.)

4. Sunspot Cycle - Down
This cycle peaked quite a while ago and will not bottom until 2020 or 2021.

5. Jupiter Uranus Cycle - Mostly neutral with a high in December
This cycle will have three transits through 135 degrees in 2019. These transits have good probabilities for marking a short term turn in the markets but should not be particularly negative. There is also however a trine on the 16th of December that should offer 60 or 70% odds for marking a high (+/- 7 days).

6. Jupiter Saturn Cycle - Neutral
There will be three transits of 30 degrees this year. This is slightly positive but not much in the overall scheme of things.


So... Conclusions:

1. The overall forecast is for a bear market in 2019 that will continue the decline over the last 3 to 6 months of 2018 (depending on which index you want to look at).
2. January will see a couple of negative aspects on the 10th (Jup/Ura), 14th (Jup/Nept) and 30th (Sat/natal Sat) so in the short term I'm expecting a minor high on the 4th of January followed by a decline until the 14th. If this proves to be correct then any rally should be sold into as a mid Jan low is VERY unlikely to end the decline.
3. February should be generally down but with no major cycle aspects to time intermediate term lows or highs.
4. March will see Mercury drop into it's inferior conjunction on the 15th, possibly timing a short term low however the Lunar Node's negative transits will start hitting in early April so the effects will likely be seen in March as well.
5. In April Mercury will be on the upswing however Pluto and Saturn are nearly conjunct at the moment and will make multiple (negative) oppositions to the Node in April, May, July and September so... even though there is an aspect on the 5th of April I wouldn't want to count on there being much of an upswing after that date.
6. The first Node Saturn opposition will be on the 1st of May. This can potentially time some sort of a low however on this occasion the aspect is going to linger with two more touches yet to come in the future so more information would be needed before betting on a rally.
7. June has a couple of planetary aspects that can time a low, especially on the 7th and 17th. However there is always a stronger negative aspect in the near future so the best trades will still be on the short side.
8. The second Node Saturn opposition will transit on the 4th of July. The downswing of the Mercury cycle will also start to be felt and will bottom on the 21st. 
9. August is a quiet month for planetary transits. Mercury will be on the upswing but August falls in the more bearish half of the year and there will also be several negative transits to the United States natal chart on the 3rd, 15th and 20th.
10. September = more negatives. Are you getting used to this yet dear reader? Saturn square natal Saturn on the 17th, Jupiter square Neptune on the 22nd and Node opposition Saturn on the 28th (very bad). This is so negative that it actually has a chance to bring in the low for the year.
11. October = more negatives, but not as negative as September. There is a Jupiter Uranus turn date on the 14th and a Saturn square natal Saturn on the 21st. 
12. November has some negative cycles, but the trend may turn up for a couple of months. The New Moon at the end of October will set up the conditions for a possible panic and the 11th of November will be the last Mercury low cycle for the year. On this basis the 11th or 12th of November is probably the last chance for a low date in 2019 and should see some sort of a rally as the negative pressures start to wane.
13. The 16th of December will be a Jupiter Uranus trine. This is nearly always a high so with everything else considered I'm expecting a rally up into this date, give or take 7 days. From there it will be time to reassess but 2019 will not end the bear market in my opinion.