7 Year Pivots, Including Saros Cycle (7 x 8 = 56)

Using past data in 7 year increments: 1990, 1997, 2004, 2011:

Common pivots from the above are:

• Late January (2/4)
• Late February/Early March (4/4)
• Mid to Late April (4/4)
• Mid June (3/4)
• Mid July to early August (4/4)
• Late August (4/4)
• Early October (4/4)
• Mid to Late October (4/4)
• Early December (3/4)

The late January and late February pivots are arguably hits for 2018 and if markets turn down from here then so the late April hit will be also.

The next time period to watch will be mid to late June.

Looking also at the Saros cycle we have the following charts for 1962 and 1906

Note that both 1906 and 1962 both have solid declines down into the late June/early July period.

The charts below have a couple of potential targets for the SP500. I'm not so sure that they'll be reached but in any case it's amazing to see that if the 2002 bear market range is repeated then we'll only have a 33 to 38% retracement!

Aspects Forecast

It's only 4 months into the year. ; )

Here are what I consider to be the major aspects for the rest of 2018.

It paints a surprisingly bullish picture given the number of cycle forecasts that have already turned down but it is consistent with the positive breadth shown on the NYSE bourse...

• Node - Uranus (natal) sextile
• Jupiter - Neptune trine (twice!!)
• Node - Node (natal) conjunct 
• Saturn - Uranus trine (not quite exact but very very close)

These are the heavyweights and they are spread fairly evenly from May through to September.

The weak points for potential lows are late June, early to mid August and early September.

(By the way hard aspects to the US natal exactly timed the 9th of Feb and 2nd of April lows so I won't be ignoring that 28th of June low cycle.)

From November onwards however EVERYTHING starts to change.

• The lunar node leaves Leo and soon after makes a hard aspect to natal Pluto.
• Saturn opposes natal Jupiter
• Saturn squares natal Saturn
• Lunar node opposes Pluto AND Saturn (transiting)
• and so on and so on....

Again these are the heavyweights and they are spread from November 2018 through to October 2019.

Counter View

Despite the positive breadth shown in my previous post there are some good reasons to suspect that 'THE' high may be in and markets are now in the early stages of the inevitable and enormous bear market.

First an SPX daily chart. My comments are shown on the chart.

Next is a collection of cycle charts, most (but not all) of which indicate that the bear market should already be underway.

looking for a low

I am looking to open some medium term long positions on the indices. Here's why:


Firstly a comparison between the XJO and XSO. The XSO has been relatively bullish for quite some time so false signals are (always) a risk, however there is a very clear divergence present over the last couple of months.

Next the SPX...


NAAIM sentiment can go lower but is at a level that has marked previous lows. The survey is done each Wednesday so a sharp drop this week would potentially coincide with a more appropriate sentiment reading.

AAII sentiment is similar to NAAIM in that it is not at extreme levels, but it does suggest that the market is nearer to a low than a high.

The equity put/call ratio is similarly could go higher but is at a level that marked the February low.

Bullish percent is the least useful of the indicators at the moment.

The cumulative NYAD is unequivocal to my eye and suggests new highs in the future. 

The 20ema of the same data paints a similar bullish story.

And the NYSI (my favourite) has a nice bullish divergence in place. It will also be nice if the index can make a quick dive down to print a lower low.

Lastly the RUT:SPX ratio. Given all of the positive breadth shown above you would expect to see relative strength in the RUT and that is indeed the case.