2017 preview

Armstrong is up until the end of 2017 (24th of November)

Dave 1968 is up until mid 2018

Ferrera

Sunspots are now hard down until 2020

Lunar node/Gann financial timetable is still up until the 14th of June 2018, however there is a potential minor low on the 19th of November 2017.

Major aspects are:

1. The current Saturn-Uranus trine will have two more hits in May and November 2017 (expect highs)
2. The current Jupiter-Uranus opposition will hit again in early March and late September 2017 (expect lows)
3. Jupiter-Saturn sextile in early September 2017.
4. Jupiter-Saturn semi-square in December 2017, March 2018 and September 2018

Mercury inferior conjunctions (which are often lows) will be: 

1. 28/12/2016
2. 20/4/2017, 
3. 26/8/2017
4. 13/12/2017

Summing up the above.....

The bullish case is:

• Saturn-Uranus trine until November 2017
• Jupiter-Saturn sextile until September 2017
• Lunar node cycle until late 2017 (detrended GDP) or mid 2018 (natal aspect)
• Ferrera up until 2017 or 2018.
• Dave1968 until mid 2018
• Armstrong until late 2017

The bearish case is:

• Sunspot cycle is now hard down until 2020
• Jupiter-Uranus opposition in March and September 2017
• Jupiter-Saturn semi-square from late 2017 onwards

Conclusion....

The bull market since 2009 has been epic in it's relentlessness (at least for the US markets) but it doesn't appear likely to collapse just yet. The cycles listed above are the heavyweights and the balance is still biased to the bullish side so it would be wrong to expect major fireworks until late 2017 at the earliest. From then on however things will start to change rather quickly!

In the shorter term there will be bearish forces peaking around March/April and September next year, so January/February is probably a good time to get positioned for downside but it would be best not to get too excited just yet.

Best of luck for 2017!

chat

A couple of comments on the preceding charts...

The SPX is up above the 65 day Keltner Channel with waning momentum.

BPNYA is also waning, but not severely and it is up at a relatively high level.

The relative strength of RUT and COMPQ is a bit grey... both ratios have signs of relative weakness but again the weakness is fairly tame and there is also some signs of relative strength.

The NYMO has some genuine divergence on the board, but this is the weakest of indicators for short terrm divergence.

NYSI is trending up in the short term but still carries the setup for a longer term divergence.

VIX is hugging the bottom Bollinger Band and the support of previous lows.

CPCE has turned up from a top worthy level.

NAAIM is again over 100 and at a high level.

RYDEX asset allocations appear to be going to an extreme!


Conclusion:

Prices and sentiment have reached overbought levels and divergences have started to build.

In my view the conditions are in place for a top. It has either recently been put in place or will occur in the relatively near future.

The first Saturn-Uranus trine was exact yesterday and appears to have overpowered the Jupiter Uranus opposition (as previously anticipated).

The XSO has been showing some considerable weakness relative to the XJO so an even stronger bearish argument is in place for the XJO.

Merry Christmas!  : D

charts

NYSE

The US indicies have a rocket under them but there isn't too much to get excited about at the moment...

A couple of points about the SPX:

1. It has shot clearly above the upper Keltner Channel (custom settings) which is usually a very good place to sell.

2. The situation with the Summation Index is similar to the ASX in that almost a rally to new highs is almost certain to print a -ve divergence.

3. The prints on the McClellan Oscillator have been above zero (which is a change!) but they're not really indicating a breadth thrust to kick off a new extended rally.

Other breadth measures are mixed:

1. Bullish Percent has a solid uptrend but is a shade weak at the moment.

2. New highs hit their highest level in a long time this week! Perhaps a sign of a short term exhaustion.

3. The Russell 2000 is showing continued relative strength; but

4. The Nasdaq has weakened over the past six weeks or so.

In summary...

The SPX seems almost certain to retrace in the very near future. After that the question will be of course whether or not it trades back up to the current (or near future) highs.

Sentiment

NAAIM is back up around 100. The chart below is actually a week old but with the continued rally the reading will likely be higher this week.

The put/call ratio ema20 has worked it's way down to a level that has been seen at other market highs.

Rydex asset ratios (not shown) are still indicating conditions for a high.

The VIX is suitably low and touching the bottom Bollinger.

And lastly the CNN composite sentiment indicator is back up at excessively bullish levels, as you would expect given all of the above.

ASX

There's a few mixed messages going on at the moment...

Firstly BHP has recently hit a key resistance level.

Next the XSO. It is showing quite a lot of relative weakness when compared to the XJO or XAO.

On the XJO above there are a couple of other important points to note:

1. The rally over the last couple of days has meant that the index declined for 6 trading days and then hit a new high in less than half the time taken for the decline. This is usually a very bullish sign but it can also show up as an exhaustion to finish a move.

2. A reversal here will print a rather clear momentum divergence.

3. A reversal here (or just about anywhere actually) will print a very large divergence on the McClellan Summation Index (not shown).

4. The index is sitting in the region of former tops over the past six months. Reversals are usually better bets than breakouts.


So.... Most of the evidence at the moment points to some future downside however that fast move up this week may well be a sign that the obvious expectation is actually wrong.