Review - Astro

It's clear now that the forecast I made at the end of 2018 is a failure. The price chart runs from the bottom left to the top right of the price chart... so much for my bearish predictions.

We are however heading into the bearish half of the year. Solar declination is falling and very soon from now all of the planets will join it. On top of these the forthcoming New Moons on the 1st of August and 28th of October have every chance of triggering very memorable panics.

Time will tell but I would certainly like to see a good washout.

From mid November to mid December should be very bullish, and again the new moon on the 26th of December may well put a rocket under the market until well into January next year.

Good hunting...

Review - Sentiment

Sentiment measures at the moment are a bit equivocal. This is usually the case but at least the more reliable measures support the thesis of a market high here.

Raw AAII data isn't saying anything useful, but it's only rarely useful when the best trading opportunities come along.

Same story for the ratio of the AAII data... nothing of note here.

NAAIM data is certainly more useful and is at the high end of the range... consistent with a high.

The put/call data is also looking useful and has turned up from a level that can mark SPX tops.

So... it's not exactly conclusive (as usual) but all else being equal I'd rather be short than long.

Review - Breadth

I'm clearly well overdue for a general market review and will do this in a trinity of parts... breadth, sentiment and astrology.

Firstly the breadth charts which for the most part are all saying much the same thing for both the short term and intermediate term outlook:

Negative breadth divergence abounds and it's fair to expect that we are either at or near a tradeable high....

The charts speak for themselves (to anyone who understands breadth and Dow theory) so I'll keep the commentary to a minimum.

I have left the least bearish chart 'til last. The cumulative NYAD line has a small divergence at the high but I would expect more than this for a major high. Nevertheless I have seen the market turn several times with a small divergence such as this.

Bottom line.... All the breadth divergence that a short position could ask for. The only question is how low will it go and how long will it stay down.