27 July 2019

Review - Sentiment

Sentiment measures at the moment are a bit equivocal. This is usually the case but at least the more reliable measures support the thesis of a market high here.

Raw AAII data isn't saying anything useful, but it's only rarely useful when the best trading opportunities come along.
Same story for the ratio of the AAII data... nothing of note here.
NAAIM data is certainly more useful and is at the high end of the range... consistent with a high.
The put/call data is also looking useful and has turned up from a level that can mark SPX tops.

So... it's not exactly conclusive (as usual) but all else being equal I'd rather be short than long.

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