Firstly the big picture and important cycles, then the conclusions.
1. Fundamentals - Too High.
Putting cycles aside for a moment... Are markets relatively high, low, or somewhere in between? This is the easiest question of all to answer! Share market valuations have reached nose bleed levels and are still overvalued, even with the 20% declines that have been witnessed thus far.
2. Lunar Node Cycle - Down
The Lunar Node transited into Cancer on the 7th of November last year, marking the end of the 'high' part of the cycle and a gradual transition back to 'low' prices for the next 9 years. This cycle will bring a lift when the Node transits through Gemini however the general trend will be down for all of 2019 and there will also be a bunch of transits that will add to the negative pressures later in the year.
3. Saturn Uranus Cycle - Down
2018 saw the end of a Saturn-Uranus trine, a very powerful positive aspect. To find similar examples simply count back in 45 year increments... 1973, 1928, etc. This aspect is probably still in some sort of orb but it is waning and has been since September the 10th. The next major aspect for this planetary pair is a square (hugely negative of course) that will occur in early 2021. (Again you can compare this with 1974, 1931, etc.)
4. Sunspot Cycle - Down
This cycle peaked quite a while ago and will not bottom until 2020 or 2021.
5. Jupiter Uranus Cycle - Mostly neutral with a high in December
This cycle will have three transits through 135 degrees in 2019. These transits have good probabilities for marking a short term turn in the markets but should not be particularly negative. There is also however a trine on the 16th of December that should offer 60 or 70% odds for marking a high (+/- 7 days).
6. Jupiter Saturn Cycle - Neutral
There will be three transits of 30 degrees this year. This is slightly positive but not much in the overall scheme of things.
So... Conclusions:
- The overall forecast is for a bear market in 2019 that will continue the decline over the last 3 to 6 months of 2018 (depending on which index you want to look at).
- January will see a couple of negative aspects on the 10th (Jup/Ura), 14th (Jup/Nept) and 30th (Sat/natal Sat) so in the short term I'm expecting a minor high on the 4th of January followed by a decline until the 14th. If this proves to be correct then any rally should be sold into as a mid Jan low is VERY unlikely to end the decline.
- February should be generally down but with no major cycle aspects to time intermediate term lows or highs.
- March will see Mercury drop into it's inferior conjunction on the 15th, possibly timing a short term low however the Lunar Node's negative transits will start hitting in early April so the effects will likely be seen in March as well.
- In April Mercury will be on the upswing however Pluto and Saturn are nearly conjunct at the moment and will make multiple (negative) oppositions to the Node in April, May, July and September so... even though there is an aspect on the 5th of April I wouldn't want to count on there being much of an upswing after that date.
- The first Node Saturn opposition will be on the 1st of May. This can potentially time some sort of a low however on this occasion the aspect is going to linger with two more touches yet to come in the future so more information would be needed before betting on a rally.
- June has a couple of planetary aspects that can time a low, especially on the 7th and 17th. However there is always a stronger negative aspect in the near future so the best trades will still be on the short side.
- The second Node Saturn opposition will transit on the 4th of July. The downswing of the Mercury cycle will also start to be felt and will bottom on the 21st.
- August is a quiet month for planetary transits. Mercury will be on the upswing but August falls in the more bearish half of the year and there will also be several negative transits to the United States natal chart on the 3rd, 15th and 20th.
- September = more negatives. Are you getting used to this yet dear reader? Saturn square natal Saturn on the 17th, Jupiter square Neptune on the 22nd and Node opposition Saturn on the 28th (very bad). This is so negative that it actually has a chance to bring in the low for the year.
- October = more negatives, but not as negative as September. There is a Jupiter Uranus turn date on the 14th and a Saturn square natal Saturn on the 21st.
- November has some negative cycles, but the trend may turn up for a couple of months. The New Moon at the end of October will set up the conditions for a possible panic and the 11th of November will be the last Mercury low cycle for the year. On this basis the 11th or 12th of November is probably the last chance for a low date in 2019 and should see some sort of a rally as the negative pressures start to wane.
- The 16th of December will be a Jupiter Uranus trine. This is nearly always a high so with everything else considered I'm expecting a rally up into this date, give or take 7 days. From there it will be time to reassess but 2019 will not end the bear market in my opinion.
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