2018 Forecast Review

On the 14th of May this year I posted my forecast for the rest of the year and a brief overview of 2019.

Here is what I said in that forecast:

Here is how it looks on the SPX.

Not too bad overall. The move up into mid June proved to be correct. Then a low in late June was on the early end of the forecast range. The mid August to early Sept high forecast proved to be a little bit premature, however the suggestion to load up on shorts on the 2nd of October was almost perfect. The other suggested date for shorts was the 29th of October and while it was not a good day for selling it did prove to time a very tradeable turn in the market. The call for a move down into early December proved to be correct but was actually not bearish enough.

Here is the same forecast applied to the DAX.

As you can see the SPX has been a more bullish index in relative terms most of the time, but not all of the time. The DAX moved sideways over to a mid June slightly lower high on the 15th of June and has been in an overall downtrend since then. The early June low is also present on the DAX and it made a high in mid August, in the middle of the forecast time window. The 2nd of October also proved to be a very good date for establishing short positions and the market then moved with a clear trend into early December and beyond.

Lastly it is worth also looking at the XAO.

From mid May when the forecast was made the All Ords was also higher into mid June, making a short term high on the 21st. The forecast low from late June to late July was a bit of a fizzer but the market did move higher and made a bull market high in the middle of the August/September time window that was forecast. From there the market has moved down consistently although the suggestion to place shorts on the 2nd of October was off by a day or two if compared to the other indicies.

Overall I think it's a solid 7 or 8 out of 10 for the forecast. (The best thing however has been that the expectation for a major high around August or September has kept me on the right side of the market for most of the subsequent decline.)

Best wishes for 2019!