Looking good

My bearish call over the last couple of weeks is starting to show some signs of life. The next question of course is how low can it go?!

SENTIMENT

NAAIM sentiment actually ticked up in a down week and measured at 86.5.

CNN's composite sentiment indicator however has already moved to the opposite end of the sentiment spectrum.

So what to believe?

• The Rydex asset allocations still have a long way to fall and support the NAAIM interpretation of sentiment. 
• AAII sentiment readings continue to be unhelpful.
• Equity Put/Call ratio could swing either way.
• FAGIX:VUSTX is longer term bearish and short term bullish (but this indicator doesn't impress me for regular short term calls).

In summary... The market participants are continuing to show an excessively bullish bias.

NYSE BREADTH

The NYAD ema20 continues to trend down. It is well below zero but far from being an 'oversold' concern at the moment. 

Cumulative NYAD has continued to move down but isn't saying much.

NYMO is negative but the smallest of indications for a positive divergence is starting to show.

NYSI continues to show a hard trend down due to the negative NYMO at the moment.

SUMMARY

Given that: 

• Breadth is overall negative;
• Indicies are trending down;
• There are no solid signs of positive divergences forming;
• Price and breadth indicators are not yet oversold; and
• Sentiment is excessively bullish.

The conclusion is simple enough... The trend is down and there is every reason to expect that it will continue in that direction.

P.S.

ASX breadth indicators are telling the same story so I'm skipping my usual ASX analysis this week.