It is what it is...

This sideways market has frustrated most opinions over the past two weeks, including mine! The past week has seen quite a few good charts by other people though so I'd like to reproduce them here.

Firstly Bulkowski's CPI indicator. It has been chopping badly with false signals of late but for what it's worth it produced a bearish signal at Friday's close.

 The next chart was posted by The Euchre on Twitter... very interesting and also bearish.

The chart below is by Jason Goepfert who posts as "SentimenTrader" on Twitter.

Two consecutive inside weeks for the S&P500 is clearly a rare event. Note also that it has never done three inside weeks in a row.

Chris Carolan's analog charts below are based on the lunar calendar and carry an obvious message.

Tom McClellan should know a thing or two about interpretation of the McClellan Oscillator and posted the following chart a couple of days ago:

The above charts are my idea of good grist for the mill and clearly make it hard to imagine a bullish outcome from here. In any case however the most actionable information usually comes from one's own analysis...


WEEKLY REVIEW

First a couple of basic price charts. I've been tentatively bearish for the past two weeks and the market has thus far failed to prove me right or wrong.

One thing which has been strange however is the relative strength of the ASX since the mid September low. This is not 'important' information just yet but it is worth keeping track of.

NYSE Breadth

The NYMO is back below zero and the NYSI is already at a new low so take note.

Comments regarding the overall negative divergence from a couple of weeks ago also still apply.

The cumulative NYAD is starting to turn down and it's ema20 is now below zero, as would be expected.

Bullish percent is telling the same story as the NYMO, NYSI etc. however new highs and new lows are pretty much silent.

There is some slight relative weakness in the Russell and slight relative strength in the NASDAQ... So no clear signal here in either direction.

So in summary the NYSE breadth is bearish.

I've been saying that for two weeks but the indications are now simpler and the conclusion is much easier to reach.

This game and it's analysis can be easy... all you have to do is remember to wait!


ASX Breadth

Thanks again to Rolf for his breadth data.

To my eye the key points are:

1. One month new highs are showing negative divergence over the last couple of weeks.
2. One month new lows are showing a bit of an uptick.
3. The Summation Index has turned down slightly
4. The McClellan Oscillator peaked relatively low, then printed a negative divergence and has now dropped below zero again.

In short the ASX breadth data is telling the same story as the NYSE breadth data so same story = same conclusion.

Sentiment

Sentiment is little changed from last week.

Conclusion

1. Sentiment is bearish
2. Respectable analysts are bearish
3. Breadth is bearish
4. The NYSE has printed two consecutive inside weeks and has NEVER in it's history printed three in a row!
5. Yesterday Saturn squared the lunar node and is usually good for a significant depression of the "business curve" (McWhirter).

Given the above the odds are firmly in favour of a turn down and my expectation is that it will be a large one. I only wish it was always this simple!