Brief update

I'm short on time and little has changed since last week so I'm keeping it brief again.

First up is a price chart of the SPX with a couple of comments.

As you can see from the above I don't have a lot of confidence in this year's breakout.

Next looking at the breadth:

• NYMO approached oversold levels and then the market bounced but the NYMO has now been brought back up to zero so it's currently neutral IMO.

• NYSI has continued it's trend down and simple message.

• The cumulative NYAD is still in an uptrend but is neutral in the short term.

• The NYAD ema 20 is currently tracking as per the NYMO so there is no additional information here.

The upshot of the above is that there's no material change in the breadth indicators or my thoughts since last week.

When markets again start moving rapidly or approaching double tops/bottoms then I will pay closer attention to other breadth indicators such as New Highs/Lows etc but for the most part and at the moment the indicators listed above are my 'four on the floor' for looking at breadth.

Sentiment indicators are little changed although the NAAIM exposure index has taken a bit of a dive. Nevertheless the overall contrarian view needs to be bearish so if the trend is down there will need to be a lot more of a sentiment shift before I think about changing my stance.

The Saturn-Node square has now passed with little effect so time will tell whether the expected effect is delayed or not.

ASX is same-same.


CONCLUSION

I'm of the view that the trend is down and I'm willing to give it another two to four weeks to show itself. In December however we will be getting to close to the Saturn-Uranus trine so I'll be expecting a significant rally leading into the end of December.