08 August 2017

Thin Ice

The forecast for lower prices by the end of the year seems fairly straightforward but trying to figure out the intervening top has not been easy... for anyone!!

Nevertheless the last couple of weeks the market breadth has been hollowing out nicely and is showing up on the board no matter how you crunch the numbers.

Firstly the SPX. It's currently above the Keltner Channel and has some straightforward momentum divergence on a daily chart. (The momentum divergence in a monthly chart is immense fwiw!!)


The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are both singing from the same songsheet for a change, and indicating a move down is in the works.


The Bullish Percent, NYMO and NYSI (my favourite) have all made some clear moves and are putting divergences in place.


The Australian XJO index is a strange cow at the moment. It has been weak relative to the SPX for 8 years but now with the end of an epic bull market in sight it is showing relative strength in terms of it's own summation index!





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