Are we nearly there yet?

The perennial question!

It's been a couple of weeks since my last post so it's time for a more thorough review of the market status.

First up is a monthly chart of the SP500. This chart shows the PMO indicator but the story is the same with the MACD, RSI or whatever your favourite momentum indicator happens to be. With the momentum divergence shown there should be no surprise if we are at the onset of a large and fast price drop, or even a long term trend reversal.

BREADTH

This is a 3 year chart of the SP500 with 52 week new highs and lows shown. New lows have ticked up a little but have a long way to go before reaching any kind of extreme level.

The same chart zooming in to the past six months... Price is approaching the lower Keltner Channel which might mean something.

Moving on to other breadth measures. Bulkowski's CPI indicator is indicating down, as you would expect.

Bullish Percent is hard down.

The McClellan Oscillator has reached an 'oversold' level. This indicator however can just as easily make a spike low as it can build a broad divergence so prices can potentially continue to fall for some time yet.

The Summation Index (as with the Bullish Percent above) is hard down with no signs of a reversal or divergence.

The cumulative NYAD is confirming the trend.

The ema20 of the NYAD data is again tracking as per the McClellan Oscillator... Now reaching oversold levels but no divergence in place as yet.

SENTIMENT

Lots of charts today...

First up is the VIX. The VIX has moved so fast that it has closed outside of the Bollinger Bands for four days in a row! A close back inside the BB's is used by many traders as a reliable signal of a reversal (both up and down) so it's definitely something to keep an eye on at the moment.

Next is the same chart of the VIX but zooming out a little. The current level has marked numerous lows in the past so a bounce is probably not far off.

I'm copying Tom McClellan's 'VIX' chart posted on Twitter this week as well. it's fairly self explanatory and very interesting!

Next is the CNN Fear-Greed indicator. It has definitely reached a 'low worthy' level. Keep in mind that this is a composite indicator so the notable move over the last week may be due in large part to the rapid rise of the VIX.

The AAII sentiment indicators are again neutral to my eye. I'm not a great fan of this data actually but it has given indications for some good lows in the past.

The Rydex sentiment measures still have a long way to fall!

The NAAIM Exposure Index, which I quite like, has definitely started to change teams but it has a way to go yet...

And lastly the ema20 of the Equity Put/Call data. It is definitely on it's way up but not yet 'extreme' to my mind.

SUMMARY

The trend is down and my bearish stance over the last couple of months has at least started to materialise.

A few important indicators have reached 'oversold' levels so a bounce some time soon should be expected however the overall setup is still a tad too bearish for me to go looking too closely on the long side.

A couple of cycle analysts more knowledgeable than myself have been calling for a November 8th/9th low so those calls are looking very good at the moment. Perhaps the current situation is similar to January 2008 and we have one or two heavy down days ahead of us to exhaust the move!